铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rising risk sentiment in the copper market supports copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,700, down 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100,270, down 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,840, up 0.62%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 321,730, a decrease of 121,398 from the previous day, and the open interest was 647,275, an increase of 772. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 28,201, an increase of 4,664, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,559 [1] - Inventory Data: Shanghai Copper inventory was 143,173, a decrease of 2,408, and LME Copper inventory was 168,250, an increase of 8,850. The cancellation warrant ratio was 27.99%, a decrease of 1.38% [1] - Spread Data: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and various spreads such as spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to continuous - first contract spread, etc., all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - Macro: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator met expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with robust growth in personal spending. Pan Gongsheng said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - Industry: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year, refined copper imports decreased by 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year, and scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 TC/RC with global miners [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper price trend [3]