Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].
金融期货早评-20260123
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-01-23 02:31