黑色建材日报：基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行-20260123

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Black Building Materials Daily Report | January 23, 2026 - Main Industries Analyzed: Steel, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Thermal Coal Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2][3] - Iron Ore: Oscillating Weakly [4][5] - Coking Coal: Oscillating [7][8] - Coke: Oscillating [7][8] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [9] Group 3: Core Views - Steel: The fundamentals of building materials are under pressure, demand is weakening, and steel prices are oscillating during the off - season. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term market sentiment is weak, and speculative demand may occur at the price bottom. Attention should be paid to production cuts, winter storage, demand de - stocking, profits, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [2] - Iron Ore: The supply from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the arrival volume of imported iron ore in China has slightly decreased but remains at a historical high. Iron ore demand has growth expectations, and the inventory at 45 ports is continuously accumulating. The fundamentals are better than the data shows, but there is uncertainty in the long - term due to potential supply shocks [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke price increase has not been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. Steel demand is poor due to the off - season and profit constraints, and steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is weak. Coke is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and the implementation process of price increases should be focused on. Coking coal also maintains an oscillating pattern in the short term [6][7] - Thermal Coal: Terminal users maintain rigid - demand procurement, and coal prices in the production areas are oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [9] Group 4: Market Analysis Steel - Futures: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3124 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3287 yuan/ton [2] - Spot: On Wednesday, the rebar inventory in Hangzhou was 47.2 tons, with an outbound volume of 3.9 tons. The national building materials trading volume was 71531 tons [2] Iron Ore - Spot: On the 22nd, the cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 91.3 tons, a 12.44% increase from the previous day. The average daily transaction volume this week was 102.1 tons, a 3.76% increase from the previous week. The average daily transaction volume this month was 95.8 tons, a 6.54% decrease from the previous month [4] - Forward Spot: The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot iron ore was 10.5 tons (2 transactions), a 94.44% decrease from the previous day. The average daily transaction volume this week was 106.5 tons, a 3.20% increase from the previous week. The average daily transaction volume this month was 103.6 tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The domestic coal mine production has increased slightly, the procurement rhythm of coking enterprises has slowed down, and the transactions are average [7] - Coke: The first - round price increase of coke has not been agreed by mainstream steel mills, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [7] Thermal Coal - Production Areas: The coal prices in the main production areas are oscillating. Terminal users such as metallurgy, chemical industry, and power plants purchase on demand. The wait - and - see sentiment of market users has increased, and the demand for hauling by surrounding coal yards and stations has decreased. The demand for high - cost - performance coal mines has improved [9] - Ports: The coal market at ports has light transactions, and prices are running weakly. The downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and the market sentiment has turned bearish [9] - Imports: The price of imported coal has remained stable recently. The supply of Indonesian coal is tight, the quotes of low - calorie coal mines are firm, and the procurement cost is inverted with the winning bid price. The liquidity of high - calorie coal is poor, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is insufficient [9] Group 5: Strategies - Steel: Unilateral - Oscillating; Cross - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Spot - Futures - None; Options - None [3] - Iron Ore: Unilateral - Oscillating Weakly; Cross - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Spot - Futures - None; Options - None [5] - Coking Coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Cross - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Spot - Futures - None; Options - None [8] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [9]