格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the steel market, including market trends, important information, market logic, and trading strategies. It points out that the supply and inventory of five major steel products have changed, and the consumer structure of building materials and plates is consistent. Near the end of the year, the downstream winter storage willingness is average, and the winter storage volume has decreased compared with last year. The report suggests short - term long - position attempts with limited upside potential and setting stop - losses [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher, and they also closed higher in the night session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In December 2025, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%; from January to December, the output was 16.524 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.1% [1] - In December 2025, China's raw coal output was 437.035 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%; from January to December, the cumulative output was 4.831782 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi were 2.1%, - 1.0%, and 2.9% respectively [1] - On January 22, 2026, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2025, China's excavator output was 37,305 units, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. In 2025, China's excavator output was 379,643 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [1] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 thousand tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 12.5708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.07 thousand tons, an increase of 0.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 8.0952 million tons, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 2.6% week - on - week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1959 million tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The product structure of steel output has changed, with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.07 thousand tons week - on - week, an increase of 0.8%. The total inventory of five major products has rebounded, and the inventory changes of building materials and plates are different. Building materials are accumulating inventory (14.87 thousand tons), and plates are reducing inventory (4.8 thousand tons). In terms of consumption, the weekly consumption of five major products is 8.0952 million tons, with the consumption of building materials decreasing by 0.8% week - on - week and the consumption of plates decreasing by 2.6% week - on - week. The consumption structure of building materials and plates in the five major products is consistent. Near the end of the year, steel mills' winter storage policies are being released one after another. The downstream winter storage willingness is average, with a cautious attitude, and the winter storage volume has decreased compared with last year. The current market winter storage psychological price is concentrated at 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price level [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions, expecting limited upside potential, and set stop - losses. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3050, and the resistance level is 3200 [1]