现货涨跌互现，内外盘延续分化

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Group 2: Core View - The prices of domestic liquefied gas spot are mixed, while the outer market and arrival costs continue to rise. Only the mainstream transaction prices of Shandong civil liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four have increased compared to the previous working day. The downstream purchasing willingness is good due to positive news and improved downstream demand [1]. - Although the outer - market propane and butane are relatively strong, the inner - market is restricted by multiple factors. On one hand, the profits of downstream chemical plants such as PDH are under pressure due to rising costs. On the other hand, the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market, and the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious after the main contract switches to the 03 contract [1]. - In the medium term, the growth trend of overseas supply continues, and there is room for recovery in the supply from the Middle East and the United States. The global balance sheet is still expected to have an oversupply situation, and the endogenous upward driving force of the market is limited. However, if the geopolitical situation in Iran further escalates and leads to an LPG supply disruption, it will significantly tighten domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On January 22, the regional prices are as follows: Shandong market, 4460 - 4510 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4050 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4430 yuan/ton; East China market, 4220 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 5030 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4790 - 4870 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF price of propane in East China is 628 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton, and butane is 618 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane is 4841 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton, and butane is 4764 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of propane is 620 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton, and butane is 610 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane is 4779 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton, and butane is 4702 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton [1]