原油日报：乌克兰再度袭击黑海港口-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and a medium - term short position [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent market focus is on the restart of CPC3 SPM. The continuous decline in CPC crude oil discount reflects buyers' avoidance. The current situation is not only due to infrastructure damage but also buyers' concerns about potential attacks on tankers and ports and the significant increase in war insurance costs. Even if SPM3 resumes production, market confidence needs time to recover [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for March delivery fell $1.26 to $59.36 per barrel, a 2.08% decline; London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery fell $1.18 to $64.06 per barrel, a 1.81% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 2.17% at 437 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukrainian drones attacked a Black Sea port on Wednesday night, causing four fuel terminals to catch fire and two deaths. The fire in a facility in Taman, Krasnodar Krai, was extinguished on Thursday morning. 208 people and 51 pieces of equipment were deployed to deal with the fire. Taman Port, which mainly handles oil, LPG, grain, fertilizers and other goods, was last attacked in December last year [1] - Soaring freight rates have prompted some shipowners to use new tankers to transport Russian oil. In late 2025, the US and the EU blacklisted hundreds of tankers related to Russian oil trade, leading to supply shortages and sky - rocketing freight rates. At least two Greek companies are attracted by the huge profits of transporting Russian crude oil [1] - Venezuela's National Assembly is scheduled to discuss an oil reform plan on Thursday. If implemented, it will break the state's monopoly on the oil industry, allowing private enterprises to extract and sell the country's rich crude oil reserves. The proposed reforms will relax the role of state - owned PDVSA, give private enterprises more freedom in oil extraction and sales, reduce their tax burden, and allow enterprises to resolve legal disputes through international arbitration [1] Investment Logic - The continuous decline in CPC crude oil discount reflects buyers' concerns about potential attacks on tankers and ports due to the ongoing Ukrainian attacks and the significant increase in war insurance costs. Market confidence needs time to recover even if SPM3 resumes production [2] Strategy - Short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and a medium - term short position [3] Risks - Downward risks: OPEC's significant production increase and macro black - swan events [3] - Upward risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]