汽柴油对低硫燃料油价差出现回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; medium-term bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; medium-term bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The spread between gasoline/diesel and low-sulfur fuel oil has declined. The short-term oil price may be affected by news, and the direction of FU and LU is unclear. The current fuel oil market has a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East-West spread may have a potential suppression on the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [1] - The current fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The low-sulfur fuel oil has limited contradictions and drivers, and the increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria may bring local pressure [1] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.89% at 2,592 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.65% at 3,125 yuan/ton [1] - The Iranian oil supply has not been substantially affected, but the tension has not completely subsided, and the short-term oil price may be repeatedly disturbed by news [1] - The current fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. It is dragged down by the sharp decline in the cracking spread in the U.S. Gulf in the short term, but there is room for growth in fuel oil demand in March, which will support the market [1] - The current contradictions and drivers of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited. The increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria may bring local pressure, and the narrowing of the gasoline/diesel premium may weaken the support for low-sulfur fuel oil [1] - The current fuel oil market has a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East-West spread will drive the opening of the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume and potentially suppressing the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; medium-term bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; medium-term bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Figure 1: Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars/ton [3][4] - Figure 2: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars/ton [3][4] - Figure 3: Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, unit: US dollars/ton [3][6] - Figure 4: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, unit: US dollars/ton [3][6] - Figure 5: Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, unit: US dollars/ton [3][9] - Figure 6: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, unit: US dollars/ton [3][9] - Figure 7: Fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][14] - Figure 8: Fuel oil FU futures index closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][14] - Figure 9: Fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][17] - Figure 10: Fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, unit: yuan/ton [3][17] - Figure 11: Fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][18] - Figure 12: Fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][18] - Figure 13: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][30] - Figure 14: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][30] - Figure 15: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, unit: yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 16: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, unit: yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 17: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][28] - Figure 18: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][28]