市场情绪提振，盘面大幅反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has been boosted, leading to a significant rebound in the polyolefin market. However, the supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP have not undergone a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound is driven by the resonance of the cost side and the capital sentiment side, and its sustainability depends on macro - level guidance and the inventory destocking process [3][4] - For PE, there is an expectation of increased supply, weak downstream demand, and inventory accumulation pressure. For PP, the supply is difficult to be significantly supported, demand is limited, and although the inventory has decreased to some extent, the overall level is still high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L主力 contract is 6814 yuan/ton (+148), and that of the PP主力 contract is 6624 yuan/ton (+139). LL and PP spot prices and basis have also changed [1] - Upstream Supply: PE开工率 is 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP开工率 is 76.0% (+0.4%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 8.4 yuan/ton (-76.9), PP oil - based production profit is - 471.6 yuan/ton (-76.9), and PDH - made PP production profit is - 666.0 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - Import and Export: LL进口利润 is 125.8 yuan/ton (+30.1), PP进口利润 is - 407.5 yuan/ton (-3.9), and PP出口利润 is - 52.8 US dollars/ton (+5.5) [2] - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率 is 36.3% (-0.6%), PE下游包装膜开工率 is 45.0% (-3.2%), PP下游塑编开工率 is 42.0% (-0.6%), and PP下游 BOPP膜开工率 is 64.0% (+0.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The market sentiment has heated up again, and the price has rebounded. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is starting to accumulate, and the destocking pressure is high. The short - term rebound depends on the macro - level and the destocking process [3] - PP: The cost of propane provides strong support, and the price has rebounded. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, the demand is limited, and the inventory level is still high. The short - term price is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment, but the destocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4] 3.3 Strategy - Single - side trading: For LLDPE and PP, it is advisable to cautiously go long on hedging. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the rebound sustainability may be limited due to the off - season demand and loose supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to go long with a light position [5] - Inter - period trading: Not recommended [5] - Inter - commodity trading: Short the LLDPE - PP spread when the spread is high [5]