关注南美收割，豆粕延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the current port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient, there are concerns about the arrival of soybeans in the first quarter. With the recent general rise in commodities, the soybean meal price has been strong recently. However, the supply pressure brought by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the future is the most significant influencing factor. Attention should be paid to the growth of Brazilian soybeans and the USDA report [2] - For the corn market, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and they mainly purchase on demand, but the inventory is still lower than the historical average. With the Spring Festival approaching, there will still be some stocking demand in the future. Attention should be paid to spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2,768 yuan/ton yesterday, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2,250 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.99% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 412, down 23 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of M05 + 302, down 23; in Guangdong, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of M05 + 322, down 13. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of RM05 + 200, down 2 [1] - Market News: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons and a 238% increase from 1.12 million tons in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2,295 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.53% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2,569 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.71% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 55, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2,630 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of CS03 + 61, down 18 [3] - Market News: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the exports of soybeans, soybean meal, corn, and wheat in January 2026 will be 9.4 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 9.17 million tons [3] 3.3 Strategies - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [6]