下游半钢胎开工率继续回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to continue to recover this week due to less rain in overseas main producing areas and high raw material prices. Although the downstream semi - steel tire orders have improved and the overall tire start - up rate has rebounded, the overall demand is still in the off - season. The inventory accumulation pattern in China is expected to continue, but the firm raw material prices and future tire factory restocking may support the rubber price. For BR, the price of butadiene has risen due to the news of the maintenance of the US BASF butadiene plant. With the strengthening of cost - side support and a warm market atmosphere, the price of BR continues to rise. The supply of BR is abundant, but the start - up rate has no room for further improvement due to production profit losses. The price of butadiene is expected to be firm, and the price of BR will follow the upward trend of butadiene [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,850 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,735 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,880 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the price of Thai No. 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,905 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian No. 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,825 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Import of Natural Rubber: In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2]. - Export of Rubber Tires: In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, reaching a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2]. ANRPC Report - In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On January 22, 2026, the RU basis was - 250 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 970 yuan/ton (+ 25), the NR basis was 604.00 yuan/ton (- 14.00); the whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton (+ 100), the mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton (+ 80), the 3L spot was 16,200 yuan/ton (+ 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,905 US dollars/ton (+ 15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,880 yuan/ton (- 20) [4]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.56), the price of Thai glue was 57.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup rubber was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), and the spread between Thai glue and cup rubber was 5.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [5]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of all - steel tires was 62.53% (- 0.49%), and the start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.84% (+ 1.31%) [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,897 tons (+ 16,724), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,273,967 tons (+ 17,175), the RU futures inventory was 108,390 tons (+ 3,900), and the NR futures inventory was 56,750 tons (- 202) [6]. Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spread: On January 22, 2026, the BR basis was - 420 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,900 yuan/ton (+ 300), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 300), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of private cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton (+ 350), and the import profit of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,562 yuan/ton (+ 252) [7]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of high - cis cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber was 76.12% (- 3.57%) [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber traders was 6,350 tons (- 1,690), and the inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 29,050 tons (+ 2,150) [9].