新能源及有色金属日报：几内亚矿难暂不影响铝矿-20260123

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].