资金情绪高涨，PTA远端加工费修复

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side has been fluctuating around the situations in Venezuela and Iran recently. The PXN was $330/ton in the day before last trading day (a month-on-month change of -$9.50/ton). The spot floating performance was weak, with March at -5, April around -3/-2, and May dropping to par. The expected increase in PX supply due to improved profitability, along with more imports from internal and external market arbitrage, and the implementation of demand-side maintenance plans, have led to a decline in PXN. However, the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive. The logic that profit restoration will lead to the cancellation or postponement of PX maintenance plans in the second quarter is difficult to confirm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PX maintenance and import conditions [1]. - The spot basis of the TA main contract was -71 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 387 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -29 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 399 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +21 yuan/ton). The implementation of polyester factories' Spring Festival production cut plans has led to a reduction in the average monthly polyester load in February from around 83% to 81%, increasing the PTA inventory accumulation in February and weakening the near-term fundamentals. In the long run, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate was 88.3% (a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%). The weaving load will be concentrated on holidays around late January, which may accelerate the decline. Due to the firm price of polyester yarn, the current terminal has difficulty passing on costs to downstream, and is mainly digesting raw material inventories, with low purchasing enthusiasm and accumulating filament inventories. In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester plants will be gradually implemented, and the polyester load will accelerate its decline. There will be more maintenance plans for staple fibers and small factories. The average monthly load in January will be around 88%, and the average monthly load in February will be reduced to around 81% [2]. - The spot production profit of PF was -20 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Supported by costs, direct-spun polyester staple fibers remained at a high level. Downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and some yarn mills have completed their raw material reserves before the Spring Festival. The number of yarn mills reducing or suspending production will increase near the end of the month, and staple fibers will face inventory accumulation pressure in the later period [2]. - The spot processing fee of PR was 582 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +11 yuan/ton). Recently, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories have been gradually implemented, and the inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market's spot supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations [2]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, with increased capital positions, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish, but the structure and near-term fundamentals have not significantly improved. Currently, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with PTA being stronger than PX. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned resumptions of PTA production due to the restoration of processing fees. For cross-variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG. There is no cross-period trading strategy [3]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import-Export Profit - Figures involve the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, staple fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [43][45][53] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton-type staple fiber load, original-recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, polyester-cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester-cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][69][72] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next next month - base month) [85][89][94]