节前现货价格偏弱，资金提前博弈节后涨价预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price was weak before the festival, and funds were betting on the post - festival price increase in advance [1] - The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - The 02 contract fluctuates, and the 04 contract has a bearish drive. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the off - season attribute of the 04 contract, and the fluctuation of the 04 contract is expected to increase. The attempt of Maersk to resume sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts [4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 60,133.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 24,650.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1707.60, 1137.70, 1399.10, 1498.40, 1086.40, and 1350.00 respectively [6] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc. For example, Maersk's WEEK5 price for Shanghai - Rotterdam was 1520/2440, and WEEK6 was 1275/2030 [1][2] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on January 16 was 1676 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2194 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3165 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on January 19 was 1954.19 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1305.27 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are also provided. For example, 12000 - 16999TEU ships are expected to deliver 781,200 TEU (53 ships) in 2026 [3] - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in January was 342,200 TEU, in February was 273,700 TEU, and in March was 289,700 TEU. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [4] 3.4 Supply Chain - Due to the complex and uncertain international situation, CMA CGM has decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal [2] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]