郑棉震荡走高，白糖窄幅波动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the international market has short - term pressure due to new cotton listings and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic market has a large increase in production, weak downstream orders, and a balanced supply - demand situation with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term market is in a low - level consolidation, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic [4][6] - For pulp, although there are overseas supply disruptions, the domestic fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,553 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 18, 1097 cotton processing enterprises participated in the notarized inspection, with a total inspection weight of 6.992 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous week. Xinjiang accounted for 98.8% of the total [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the short - term supply pressure is large, and the consumption is weak. The US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, the downstream orders are weak, and the supply - demand is balanced with a possible end - of - year inventory shortage [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term upward space of the domestic market is limited, and the long - term trend depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5160 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [2] - In the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, an increase of 26.60% year - on - year. The sugar production was 0.56 million tons, a decrease of 14.93% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term domestic and international sugar markets are in a low - level consolidation. The long - term market is not overly pessimistic due to possible changes in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and Thai planting area [4] Strategy - Neutral. The short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, with a possible further bottom - seeking but limited downside [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5380 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - The import wood pulp spot market price was basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025. Demand: The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was at a historical high [8] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term due to insufficient improvement in domestic fundamentals [9]