库存数据继续下滑，碳酸锂价格高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the risk of a price correction is rising. There is a possibility of testing the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. The export tax - rebate bonus before April still supports demand to some extent, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and demand may weaken marginally [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 22, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 165,000 yuan/ton and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton, with a 2.55% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 464,397 lots, and the open interest was 436,686 lots (427,928 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 4,780 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,886 lots, a change of 230 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 161,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 158,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 6,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,210 US dollars/ton, a change of 90 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Import Data - Customs data shows that in December, the import volume of spodumene increased by 8.09% month - on - month to 788,500 physical tons. From the source countries, the import from Canada increased significantly to 33,500 tons; the import from Zimbabwe was 132,200 tons, a 19.85% month - on - month increase; the import from Mali in December was 77,000 tons, a 5.24% month - on - month increase; affected by the high import volume in November, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia in December decreased by 27.18% month - on - month to 309,500 tons; the import from Nigeria also decreased slightly to 80,000 tons, a 13.12% month - on - month decrease. The total import volume of lithium ore in 2025 was 7.7506 million tons, with the import volume of lithium concentrate increasing by 9% year - on - year [2] Inventory Data - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,834 tons, an increase of 107 tons month - on - month; the downstream inventory was 37,592 tons, an increase of 1,940 tons month - on - month; other inventories were 51,470 tons, a decrease of 2,830 tons month - on - month [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises - Inter - period: None - Options: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None [4]