航运衍生品数据日报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is trending with a slight upward bias in the short - term, but the overall situation remains weak. The strategy is to short - allocate off - season contracts. Specifically, the short - selling cost - effectiveness is decreasing in the short - term, and investors should focus on shorting off - season contracts 04 and 10 on price rebounds [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1574, 1210, 2194, 1305, 3163, 1676, 1954, and 2983 respectively. The previous values were 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 4.45%, 1.25%, - 1.08%, - 1.36%, 1.12%, - 2.50%, - 0.10%, and - 7.70% [6]. - Spot Prices: - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM's price is 3693/FEU, relatively stable; COSCO Shipping's is 3325/FEU; Evergreen Marine's is 3030 - 3130/FEU, down about 400 from the previous period; Orient Overseas' is 2880/FEU, down 150 from the previous period. The overall FAK central value is about 2700 - 3300/FEU [7]. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's price in Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) was 1695/2730 (20 '/40'), dropping to 1510/2420 in Week 5, with non - European base ports as low as 2400/FEU; Hapag - Lloyd's is 1585/2535 (20'/40'), and the February quote remains unchanged. The overall FMK central value is about 2400 - 2700/FEU [7]. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC's price is 1580/2640 (20'/40'); Ocean Network Express (ONE)'s is 1680/2635 (20'/40'), with the February price the same; Yang Ming Marine's is about 2600/FEU, relatively stable; HIM's is 1433/2436 (20'/40') [7]. 3.2 Market Logic Maersk's European line spot freight rates have been reduced with an expanding decline. Before the Spring Festival, shipping companies need to arrange in - festival capacity to cope with reduced demand, and the current high capacity has increased the pressure to attract cargo. The PA Alliance is likely to follow suit in price cuts, and the spot quotes in early February may continue to decline. Some CMA CGM routes that were originally planned to resume through the Suez Canal have returned to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope, which may drive up the sentiment of far - month contracts, but the market has not fully priced in the resumption. The supply - demand situation in 2026 is weakening [9]. 3.3 Strategy The short - selling cost - effectiveness is decreasing in the short - term. Investors should focus on shorting off - season contracts 04 and 10 on price rebounds [10].