尿素日报：尿素产销好转-20260123

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with a sideways trend, suggesting a "Long" rating for the urea market [3]. - The cross - period strategy recommends a long position on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low, implying a positive outlook for this spread [3]. - There is no cross - variety strategy recommended [3]. 2. Core View - Urea production and sales have improved. In the first half of the week, snow and rain in some areas affected logistics, cooling the market trading atmosphere and causing spot prices to stabilize or decline. Manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, and production and sales improved. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. On the demand side, there was some procurement for winter and spring fertilizers, and off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The resumption of production in the compound fertilizer and melamine industries led to increased demand. Overall, urea inventories in factories and ports decreased slightly. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, but there is no new news on domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On January 22, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1776 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3), in Henan was - 36 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1]. II. Urea Production - As of January 22, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (a change of 0.08%). The sample enterprise total inventory was 94.60 million tons (- 4.01 million tons), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 871 yuan/ton (+ 12) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - International urea prices have increased due to the situation in Iran, and the export profit has increased by 12 yuan/ton to 871 yuan/ton [1][2]. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 22, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.96% (+ 2.88%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.65% (+ 1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.01 million tons to 94.60 million tons, and the port sample inventory remained unchanged at 13.40 million tons [1].