新能源及有色金属日报：下游逢低采购积极-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$40.12/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 22, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 131,273 lots, and the open interest was 118,558 lots. The highest price during the day reached 24,485 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,225 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 118,800 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [3]