市场情绪带动EG强势反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The sharp rise of EG on Thursday was mainly due to positive market sentiment. Funds regarded the chemical industry as an undervalued long - allocation sector, leading to a joint increase in stocks and futures. The current price of the EG main contract is at a historical low, combined with the implementation of Saudi device maintenance and the fermentation of the news that the shipment volume from January to February will decrease, resulting in a significant increase [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that on the domestic supply side, the reduction of the syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol production load is at a high level. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of devices in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February, but the near - term arrivals are still concentrated. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in January have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load may decline rapidly, weakening the support of rigid demand [2]. - For trading strategies, the short - term view on a single position is neutral. The current price is in the historical low range, with some buying support, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February is still relatively large, which may improve after March. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. For inter - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3847 yuan/ton (a change of +158 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +4.28%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3678 yuan/ton (a change of +97 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +2.71%), and the basis of EG spot in East China was -109 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Not provided in the given content Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].