地缘冲突阴云不散，贵金属再次走强

Report's Investment Rating for the Sector - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase, and the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern. The Au2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,090 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern, and the Ag2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 23,800 yuan/kg and 25,000 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The recommended strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the US "all the military access it wants" and threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sold US assets due to Greenland-related tariff threats. Economic data: The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 in the US was 4.4%, higher than the initial 4.3%, the fastest in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Labor market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,097.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,087.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,087.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,104.52 yuan/gram, a 1.56% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,037.00 yuan/kg, closed at 23,339.00 yuan/kg, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 770,373 lots, and the open interest was 307,790 lots. In the night session, it opened at 23,150 yuan/kg and closed at 24,315 yuan/kg, a 4.18% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.241%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.646%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On January 22, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,286 lots, and short positions decreased by 917 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous day was 550,853 lots, a 0.74% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 7,551 lots, and short positions increased by 4,712 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous day was 1,820,246 lots, a -6.56% change from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,077.66 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 22, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 9.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -332.83 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 46.60, a -1.32% change from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 51.24, a 3.81% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,076 kg, a -40.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 417,564 kg, a -1.28% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kg [7]