光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月23日）-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price performance is still disorderly. Against the backdrop of geopolitical easing, the oil price has returned to a downturn. However, the US natural gas price has been relatively strong recently due to concerns about the impact of the cold wave on the supply side and a marginal increase in heating demand, resulting in a divergence in the performance of oil and gas prices [1]. - The absolute prices of FU and LU may still mainly fluctuate following the oil price, with the volatility of FU significantly higher than that of other oil products. Attention should be paid to further disturbances caused by geopolitical situations [2]. - The asphalt market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation" in the short term. Attention should be paid to further disturbances caused by geopolitical situations [2]. - The supply - demand expectation of polyester has improved, but the cost pressure brought by the continuous rise of raw materials to the downstream and the terminal is relatively large, and the downstream's carrying capacity is limited. The volatility of the market has increased. Attention should be paid to the price increase range of the downstream and the changes in TA processing plants [3]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the market will focus on the changes in key MTO plants in East China [5]. - Polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the oil price declined. The WTI March contract closed down $1.26 to $59.36 per barrel, a decrease of 2.08%. The Brent March contract closed down $1.18 to $64.06 per barrel, a decrease of 1.81%. SC2603 closed at 436.6 yuan per barrel, down 9.7 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.17%. As of the week ending January 16, crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' forecasts. Gasoline inventories reached the highest level since 2021, and exports decreased by more than 500,000 barrels per day. A drone attack on a Russian port occurred. The oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main fuel oil futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed higher. As of the week ending January 19, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventories decreased, while Fujairah's inventories increased. The low - sulfur supply is generally sufficient, and the demand has some support recently. The high - sulfur market structure has strengthened slightly, but the inflow of Venezuelan resources may have a negative impact. The prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price, with high volatility of FU. It is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.45% at 3,157 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly, and the consumption of modified asphalt decreased. The market's concerns about raw materials have eased slightly, and the price is affected by the Iranian situation. It will be in a game between weak demand and strong cost, showing an oscillatory trend [2]. - Polyester: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair. Some production facilities in Saudi Arabia and the United States were shut down for maintenance, increasing the expectation of reduced imports in the far - month. The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the cost pressure on the downstream is high. It is in an oscillatory state [2][3]. - Rubber: On Thursday, rubber futures prices closed higher. In December 2025, China's rubber tire production increased year - on - year, while synthetic rubber production decreased. The price of butadiene rubber increased, driving the rise of rubber prices. The peak production season overseas is coming to an end, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are accumulating seasonally. It is in a wide - range oscillation [3][5]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,238 yuan per ton. The domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply remains low. The MTO operating load has weakened. The arrival volume in January has declined significantly, but the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - Polyolefins: On Thursday, the prices of polyolefins in East China were in a certain range. In January, some upstream plants had temporary shutdowns, and the supply decreased slightly. The demand recovered in the first half of the month and will weaken in the second half as the Spring Festival approaches. Inventories are expected to rise, showing an oscillatory trend at the bottom [5][7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and domestic demand has slowed down. The 05 contract is at a large premium. Exports will no longer be tax - refunded after April 1, which will increase the upward pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy and chemical products on January 23, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US President Trump eased threats to Greenland and Iran, and there may be positive progress in resolving the Russia - Ukraine war. The leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine will hold a tri - party meeting, boosting the prospect of a breakthrough in the cease - fire [11]. - The US Energy Information Administration reported that as of the week ending January 16, crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' forecasts. Gasoline inventories reached the highest level since 2021, and exports decreased by more than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are 19 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][29]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are 12 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][35][36][37][41][42]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are 14 figures showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][54][56][58]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are 8 figures showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [60][62][65][66]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are 4 figures showing the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [68][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won many awards and has more than ten years of experience in the futures derivatives market. Her qualification number is F3045334 (futures trading) and Z0002410 (futures trading consultation) [73]. - Du Bingqin: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison, USA. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry. Her qualification number is F3043760 (futures trading) and Z0015786 (futures trading consultation) [74]. - Di Yilin: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties. Her qualification number is F03107645 (futures trading) and Z0021445 (futures trading consultation) [75]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree and an intermediate economist title. He has relevant work experience and passed the CFA Level III exam. His qualification number is F03125423 (futures trading) and Z0022920 (futures trading consultation) [76].