Research View - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.55% to CNY 168,780 per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by CNY 5,000 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 230 tons to 28,886 tons [3]. - According to the preliminary calculation of the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars this month is expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year flat to slightly increase. Among them, new energy retail sales can reach around 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons. The output of lithium extracted from spodumene decreased by 210 tons to 13,914 tons, the output of lithium extracted from lepidolite decreased by 54 tons to 2,882 tons, the output of lithium extracted from salt lakes decreased by 30 tons to 3,115 tons, and the output of lithium extracted from recycled materials decreased by 94 tons to 2,306 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 783 tons to 108,898 tons. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 1,940 tons to 37,592 tons, the inventory of other links decreased by 2,830 tons to 51,470 tons, and the inventory of upstream increased by 107 tons to 19,834 tons [3]. - Due to the dual disturbances of supply and cost at the resource end, maintenance and export rush may lead to the expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. Without negative feedback on demand in the industry, a bullish approach is recommended. The short - term demand can be verified by the weekly replenishment demand of downstream. However, the inventory turnover days are still low. Considering the upcoming Spring Festival, downstream still has the motivation to replenish inventory. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The main contract closing price of lithium carbonate futures rose from CNY 166,740 per ton on January 21, 2026, to CNY 168,780 per ton on January 22, 2026, an increase of CNY 2,040. The continuous contract closing price rose from CNY 165,080 per ton to CNY 166,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,420. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from USD 2,035 per ton to USD 2,130 per ton, an increase of USD 95. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased from CNY 3,060 per ton to CNY 3,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from CNY 4,835 per ton to CNY 4,975 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased from CNY 15,350 per ton to CNY 15,750 per ton, an increase of CNY 400. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased from CNY 16,950 per ton to CNY 17,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 400 [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 158,500 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 155,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 151,500 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) increased from CNY 156,350 per ton to CNY 161,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 143,900 per ton to CNY 148,900 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased from USD 16.8 per kg to USD 18.75 per kg, an increase of USD 1.95 [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased from CNY 149,500 per ton to CNY 148,500 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at CNY 3,500 per ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from CNY 7,000 per ton to CNY 8,000 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased from CNY - 33,876.48 per ton to CNY - 25,214.38 per ton, an increase of CNY 8,662 [5]. - The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,150 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 105,250 per ton to CNY 105,050 per ton, a decrease of CNY 200. The price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 98,700 per ton to CNY 98,650 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,200 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 100 [5]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 193,000 per ton to CNY 194,600 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,600. The price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) increased from CNY 182,600 per ton to CNY 183,800 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,200. The price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 187,900 per ton to CNY 189,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,300. The price of ternary material 811 (power - type) increased from CNY 205,700 per ton to CNY 206,400 per ton, an increase of CNY 700 [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) increased from CNY 55,595 per ton to CNY 57,050 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) increased from CNY 54,045 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased from CNY 50,470 per ton to CNY 51,870 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,400. The price of lithium manganate (power - type) increased from CNY 57,000 per ton to CNY 57,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) increased from CNY 55,000 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained at CNY 404,500 per ton [5]. - The price of 523 square ternary cells increased from CNY 0.525 per Wh to CNY 0.526 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at CNY 0.54 per Wh. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased from CNY 4.85 per piece to CNY 4.95 per piece, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased from CNY 0.356 per Wh to CNY 0.357 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) increased from CNY 0.47 per Wh to CNY 0.48 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.01. The price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased from CNY 7.75 per Ah to CNY 7.85 per Ah, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at CNY 0.306 per Wh [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 5, 2025, to January 22, 2026 [38][40]. Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].
碳酸锂日报（2026年1月23日）-20260123
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-23 05:02