申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber price continued to rebound on Thursday. With domestic production areas in the off - season and Thailand's northeastern areas expected to stop tapping in January while the southern part is in the peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalog Futures Market - RU, NR, and BR futures prices all rose, with increases of 105 (0.67%), 120 (0.95%), and 355 (2.98%) respectively. The trading volume of RU, NR, and BR was 182,370, 48,300, and 182,757 respectively. The open interest of RU increased by 355, NR decreased by 1231, and BR increased by 10 [2] - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3115, 3580, and 465 respectively, with changes of - 15, - 250, and - 235 compared to the previous values [2] - The RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke sheet - RU were - 350, - 1135, and 2350 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [2] Spot Market - The prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming, as well as smoke sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai, and mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2] - The prices of Thai smoke sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex also remained unchanged, with a growth rate of 0.00% [2]