光大期货有色商品日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated strongly. The spot import of refined copper in China remained in a state of continuous loss. The US Q3 real GDP quarter - on - quarter final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, with stable inflation expectations and healthy consumer spending. The central bank governor in China indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. LME copper inventory increased by 8,850 tons to 168,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,031 tons to 507,437 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 2,408 tons to 143,173 tons, and BC copper decreased by 75 tons to 10,685 tons. Although the current domestic copper demand has entered the off - season and there is a need for adjustment in the industry, the high - spirited capital sentiment in the precious metals sector may have a spill - over effect on copper. It is advisable to be cautious before the Spring Festival, but the medium - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,632 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. The Australian ore rainy season's impact is evident, and the shipment of several mines is stable. Overseas geopolitical tensions have eased, and the US has postponed imposing tariffs on some key minerals. The domestic downstream Spring Festival stocking cycle has started, but the overall recovery is limited, and the aluminum ingot inventory accumulation continues. The short - term aluminum price on the disk may experience a phased correction but will still show anti - decline characteristics under high - level support. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking process and inventory trends [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.7% to $18,100 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 168 tons to 284,496 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 432 tons to 41,584 tons. On January 21, Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry predicted that nickel ore production would decline by 10% - 15% compared to the previous year. As prices rise rapidly, the prices of products in each link of the industrial chain have strengthened, and the first - grade nickel production has increased by 18.5% to 37,200 tons month - on - month. The hedging demand may put some pressure on the disk price. The Indonesian policy provides short - term support for nickel prices, but the potential long - term quota supplement and high inventory are upward pressures. In the short term, it may fluctuate widely at a high level, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, current inventory, and policy implementation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro - economically, the US economic data is positive, and China has room for monetary policy adjustment. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The domestic copper demand off - season and industrial divergence coexist with the positive factor of capital sentiment in the precious metals sector. The short - term is uncertain, and the medium - term trend is upward [1]. - Aluminum: The prices of alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy are on the rise. The spot price and discount of aluminum have changed, and the raw material market and downstream processing fees also show different trends. Overseas and domestic factors jointly affect the aluminum market, with short - term correction and long - term anti - decline characteristics [1][2]. - Nickel: The price of nickel has increased, and inventory changes are different in LME and SHFE. The Indonesian policy and the increase in production in the industrial chain have an impact on the nickel price, with short - term high - level wide - range fluctuations [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 5 yuan/ton, the 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 194 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,408 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 29,000 tons [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 201 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 6,933 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 30 yuan/ton. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 101 tons, the total weekly inventory increased by 42,051 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 13,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 8,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 900 yuan/ton. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 432 tons, the weekly nickel inventory increased by 1,530 tons, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 100 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory in SHFE increased by 793 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 3,500 tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 1.9%, the SMM spot price increased by 7,500 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory in SHFE increased by 2,614 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][16]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][41]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and focuses on providing information and research services in the non - ferrous and new energy industries [46]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won relevant industry awards and focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serving many leading new energy enterprises [47].