申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The soybean harvest rate in Brazil as of January 17 was 2.3%, higher than last week's 0.6% and last year's 1.2%, but lower than the five - year average of 3.2%. Positive talks between China and the US boosted the market's expectations for US soybean exports, and the upcoming biofuel policy also improved demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3]. - The oil market adjusted in a volatile manner at night. Malaysia's strong palm oil exports in January, a decline in production month - on - month, and a reduction in tariffs supported palm oil prices. Indonesia's revocation of the licenses of 28 palm oil plantation companies and the current production - reducing season raised concerns about production, making palm oil prices trend strongly recently. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are also expected to support soybean oil. In the short term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8084, 8944, 9002, 2768, 2396, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, 112, 55, 43, 19, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.50%, 1.27%, - 3.15%, 1.58%, 0.80%, and 0.29% [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: There were detailed data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4113 (ringgit/ton), 1064.00 (cents/bushel), 53.74 (cents/pound), and 296.20 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 48.0, - 1.0, - 0.3, and 4.7, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.18%, - 0.09%, - 0.57%, and 1.61% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: There were data on the spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different domestic regions, along with their percentage changes and spot basis [2]. - Spreads: There were also data on spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - There were data on the import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseeds, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - There were data on the warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Industry Information - A US private exporter reported the sale of 192,350 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The Brazilian Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) expected Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach 177.124 million tons, up from 171.481 million tons in the previous season, and its soybean exports in 2026 to reach 111.5 million tons, up from 108.2 million tons in 2025 [3].