20260123申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded. From a fundamental perspective, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the transmission of macro factors to commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost - end. Overall, the current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6865, 6814, and 6845 respectively, with price increases of 145, 148, and 151, and percentage increases of 2.16%, 2.22%, and 2.26% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 96, 515971, and 24588, and the open interests were 123, 515524, and 53810, with increases of 35, 11162, and 1329 respectively [2] - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6599, 6624, and 6649 respectively, with price increases of 106, 139, and 130, and percentage increases of 1.63%, 2.14%, and 1.99% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 1226, 422990, and 30196, and the open interests were 1525, 486782, and 90621, with increases of 881, 18459, and 4985 respectively [2] - Futures Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 51, - 31, and - 20 respectively, compared to previous values of 54, - 28, and - 26. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 25, - 25, and 50 respectively, compared to previous values of 8, - 34, and 26 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2261 yuan/ton, 6175 yuan/ton, 620 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2211 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6270 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - Spot Market: The current prices in the LL East China, North China, and South China markets are 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, the same as before. The current prices in the PP East China, North China, and South China markets are 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, the same as before [2] News - On Thursday (January 22), the settlement price of the March 2026 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.36 per barrel, down $1.26 or 2.08% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.96 - $60.82. The settlement price of the March 2026 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.06 per barrel, down $1.18 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.56 - $65.38 [2]