2026/1/28星期五：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the co - action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4722.00, 4719.40, 4683.00, and 4626.00 respectively, with price drops of 8.40, 9.20, 8.00, and 7.60. The trading volumes were 21131.00, 72080.00, 16424.00, and 5084.00, and the changes in open interest were - 1250.00, 895.00, 1761.00, and 1338.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3057.00, 3061.20, 3057.60, and 3025.80 respectively, with price drops of 16.40, 15.60, 16.00, and 14.00. The trading volumes were 9868.00, 33606.00, 6302.00, and 2827.00, and the changes in open interest were - 103.00, 520.00, 541.00, and 450.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8404.00, 8400.00, 8309.60, and 8195.20 respectively, with price increases of 45.20, 44.20, 57.20, and 56.00. The trading volumes were 24325.00, 81239.00, 24987.00, and 7834.00, and the changes in open interest were - 1605.00, - 1824.00, 496.00, and 2501.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8318.00, 8292.60, 8119.20, and 7952.00 respectively, with price increases of 72.00, 74.80, 79.60, and 80.40. The trading volumes were 29789.00, 104669.00, 28536.00, and 9605.00, and the changes in open interest were - 2497.00, - 5555.00, - 2783.00, and 1424.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 2.60, 4.20, - 4.00, and - 25.40 respectively, compared with previous values of - 1.40, 3.80, - 2.20, and - 29.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4723.71, 3053.13, 8387.60, and 8309.35 respectively, with changes of 0.01, - 0.46, 0.57, and 0.75. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 274.20, 62.92, 268.81, and 328.56, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6902.35, 1934.11, 5461.38, and 5718.06 respectively [1] - Industry Performance: In terms of industries, the energy, telecommunications, and information technology sectors had positive growth rates of 2.33%, 3.70%, and 0.10% respectively, while the raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and public utilities sectors had negative growth rates of - 0.25%, - 0.27%, - 0.74%, - 0.52%, - 0.69%, - 0.56%, and - 0.35% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) to the CSI 300 index were - 1.71, - 4.31, - 40.71, and - 97.71 respectively, compared with previous values of 1.13, - 0.27, - 35.27, and - 91.07 [1] - IH Contracts: The basis of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) to the SSE 50 index were 3.87, 8.07, 4.47, and - 27.33 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.62, 6.42, 2.82, and - 30.58 [1] - IC Contracts: The basis of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) to the CSI 500 index were 16.41, 12.41, - 78.00, and - 192.40 respectively, compared with previous values of 33.09, 30.89, - 70.31, and - 182.11 [1] - IM Contracts: The basis of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) to the CSI 1000 index were 8.65, - 16.75, - 190.15, and - 357.35 respectively, compared with previous values of 12.32, - 16.68, - 196.08, and - 357.68 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4122.58, 14327.05, 8822.34, and 3328.65 respectively, with changes of 0.14%, 0.50%, 0.17%, and 1.01% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26629.96, 53688.89, 6913.35, and 24856.47 respectively, with changes of 0.17%, 1.73%, 0.55%, and 1.20% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, stated that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with flexible and efficient use of multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Efforts will be made to maintain the stable operation of the financial market, manage expectations, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, strengthen supervision of the bond, foreign exchange, money, bill, and gold markets, and establish a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions in specific scenarios. Two monetary policy tools to support the capital market will continue to be used to support the stable development of the capital market [2] - Six major state - owned banks collectively announced the implementation of the fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and the optimization of related services. During the implementation of the consumer loan subsidy policy, the actual interest rate of some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range after subsidy, which is even lower than the current newly issued housing loan interest rate [2] - At the beginning of 2026, the second - hand housing market in many places continued the "tail - end rally". Institutional monitoring data showed positive changes in the recovery of the first - tier and strong second - tier core areas. The transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen warmed up. Data from intermediary platforms showed that the number of second - hand housing listings in Shanghai has been decreasing for 9 consecutive months, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually approaching balance [2] - US President Trump said in Davos that he is working hard to ensure that the US continues to lead in the global cryptocurrency field and prevent China from taking the lead. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China has always actively carried out bilateral and multilateral monetary and financial cooperation, participated in global macro - policy coordination, and international financial rule - making [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a red card for the first time for enterprise mergers in the public utility field. On January 21, it prohibited the establishment of a joint venture by Foshan Nanhai Bluebird Gas Co., Ltd. and Foshan Nanhai Nanguan Gas Co., Ltd. This is the first time since the implementation of the Anti - Monopoly Law that the State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited the concentration of operators in the public utility field [2] - Nine departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High - quality Development of the Pharmaceutical Retail Industry", proposing to encourage pharmaceutical retail enterprises to participate in centralized drug procurement, support the merger and reorganization of retail pharmacies, and encourage the sale of innovative drugs and reference preparations in retail pharmacies [2] - The State Council Food Safety Office, together with the National Health Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and other departments, drafted the "National Food Safety Standard - Prepared Dishes" and "Terms and Classification of Prepared Dishes" drafts, and also drafted an announcement on promoting the voluntary disclosure of food processing methods in the catering sector, which will be open to public comments soon [2] - The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration showed that in 2025, the sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry increased by 28.1% year - on - year, among which the manufacturing of industrial robots and special - operation robots increased by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes rose. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes continued to diverge, with the building materials sector leading the gains and the beauty care sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.72 trillion yuan. On January 21, the margin trading balance increased by 115.51 billion yuan to 27035.71 billion yuan [2]