20260123申万期货品种策略日报：软商品-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures remained at a low level overnight. The seasonal increase in supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing season, the seasonal increase in sugar supply is becoming more apparent. The unexpectedly high sugar imports in December suppressed the futures prices. On the spot market, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption showed no signs of improvement. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [2]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend overnight. Although the immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash flows of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the inventory pressure of finished products is relatively limited. The operating rates of inland textile enterprises have decreased steadily, while those of Xinjiang textile enterprises remain strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton prices, many textile enterprises locked in the basis for point - price trading. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction has been reflected in the futures prices, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level. Buying opportunities on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Sugar Futures: The previous day's closing prices of sugar contracts SR2609, SR2605, and SR2603 were 5178, 5158, and 5163 respectively, with increases of 17, 14, and 20, and growth rates of 0.33%, 0.27%, and 0.39% respectively. The 11 - number sugar contracts 2603, 2607, and 2605 had previous day's closing prices of 14.96, 14.46, and 14.77 respectively, with increases of 0.19, 0.11, and 0.1, and growth rates of 1.29%, 0.77%, and 0.68% respectively. The trading volumes and positions of each contract also showed different changes [1]. - Cotton Futures: No detailed futures - market data about cotton is provided in the given content. 3.2 Spot Market - Sugar Spot: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5340 and 5160 respectively. The basis for Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 are 177 and - 3 respectively. The current import prices of Brazilian sugar within and outside the quota are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively [1]. - Cotton Spot: No relevant content provided 3.3 Industry Information - Dairy and Beverage Data: In December 2025, China's dairy production was 2.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The cumulative dairy production in 2025 was 29.503 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. In December 2025, China's beverage production was 13.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The cumulative beverage production in 2025 was 179.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [2]. - Sugar Production Data: In December 2025, China's refined sugar production was 3.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The total refined sugar production in 2025 was 16.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - Weather Information: The yellow warning for freezing in Guangxi remained in effect, and freezing rain and snow would affect many areas [2]. - Brazilian Sugar Cane Data: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,020 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - per - ton of cane (ATR) was 127.49 kg, a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The sugar - making ratio dropped significantly to 21.24%. The total ethanol production was 561 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 14.91%. As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane season, the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 600.4 million tons of sugar cane, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.28%. The cumulative sugar production reached 40.222 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The ethanol cumulative production was 30.838 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.06% [2].