国贸期货日度策略参考-20260123

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil, natural rubber, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon [1] - Sideways: Stock index, treasury bond, copper, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, silver, gold, platinum, palladium, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, soda ash, coking coal, coke, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pig, fuel oil, ethylene glycol, styrene, methanol, asphalt, PTA, short - fiber, PVC, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Macro - financial: Policy cools market speculative sentiment, stock index oscillates, long - term bulls can look for opportunities; asset shortage and weak economy benefit treasury bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted [1] - Non - ferrous metals: With policy changes, most non - ferrous metals prices are in a state of high - level or range oscillation, and supply - side factors need attention [1] - Precious metals and new energy: Market uncertainty supports precious metals prices, but the suspension of key mineral tariffs may suppress platinum and palladium prices [1] - Black metals: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation coexists, and the supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - Agricultural products: The market conditions vary, some are affected by supply and demand, some by policies and weather, and some are in a state of "supported but lack of drive" [1] - Energy and chemicals: Affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and device maintenance, prices show different trends [1] 3) Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Policy regulates the market, short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited, long - term bulls can look for opportunities [1] - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted, and attention should be paid to the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: With the suspension of key mineral taxes in the US, short - term concerns ease, and the price oscillates at a high level [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand in China, the industry is weak, but the price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stable, the fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price fluctuates in a range [1] - Nickel: Supply is tight, but inventory accumulation restricts price increase, short - term high - level oscillation [1] - Stainless steel: Supply - side disturbances in Indonesia, raw material prices rise, futures run at a high level, beware of squeeze - out risks [1] - Tin: The upward trend is suppressed, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities in the oscillation range [1] Precious metals and new energy - Silver, Gold: Market uncertainty supports prices [1] - Platinum, Palladium: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term can allocate platinum at low prices or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production increases, Southwest production decreases, and polysilicon and organic silicon production decreases in December [1] - Lithium carbonate: In the off - season of new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong, and there is a battery export rush [1] Black metals - Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures prices to spot is not smooth [1] - Ferrosilicon, Manganese silicon: Weak reality and strong expectation coexist, and supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1] - Soda ash: Follows glass, with looser medium - term supply and demand and price pressure [1] - Coking coal, Coke: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the price may be priced according to Mongolian coal long - term agreement cost [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, Soybean oil: Main consumer countries start purchasing, production areas may reduce production and inventory, and biodiesel themes may ferment [1] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by tariff and customs clearance expectations, it is expected to be difficult to fall smoothly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Cotton: New crop harvest is expected to be good, but there is a rigid demand for replenishment, and future policies and weather need attention [1] - Sugar: Global surplus and domestic new supply increase, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1] - Corn: Northeast sales progress is fast, port inventory is low, and there is a pre - holiday replenishment demand [1] - Soybean meal: Brazil's harvest progresses, Argentina's weather may cause short - term speculation, and M05 is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Pulp, Log: Affected by macro and external factors, prices are in a state of oscillation [1] - Live pig: Supply capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil, Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase, affected by the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1] - Natural rubber: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, follows crude oil, and asphalt profit is high [1] - BR rubber: Cost support is strong, market price - support atmosphere is strong, and attention should be paid to downstream acceptance [1] - PTA, Short - fiber: PX price rises, PTA maintains high - level operation, and short - fiber follows cost fluctuations [1] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - side news stimulates price rebound, and downstream demand exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: Supply - demand fundamentals improve, inventory decreases, and price rebounds [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, there is a reduction in expected imports, and downstream feedback is negative [1] - Asphalt: Geopolitical conflicts may cause price increases, supply increases, and downstream demand weakens [1] - PVC: Global production is low in 2026, but the domestic fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: February CP is expected to rise, cost support is strong, and inventory is decreasing [1] Others - Container shipping on the European route: It is expected to peak in mid - January, airlines' resumption of flights is cautious, and pre - holiday replenishment demand still exists [1]