中国香港地产系列研究之四：香港商业地产逐步触底，标杆商业开发运营商梳理-20260123
Ping An Securities·2026-01-23 07:10

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with potential benefits for Hong Kong-based real estate companies. Since 2018-2019, the market has undergone significant adjustments, but there are indications of marginal improvements in office rental rates and vacancy rates in core areas, as well as a narrowing decline in retail property rents. The macroeconomic and property market recovery may lead to a gradual exit from the low point, positively impacting rental income and property value reassessment for developers [3][6][21]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate - The report indicates that Hong Kong's commercial real estate is currently at a bottoming signal, with core area office rents and vacancy rates showing marginal improvements. Retail property rent declines are also narrowing, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][6]. Swire Properties - Swire Properties is highlighted as a leading comprehensive commercial project developer and operator, with 2024 revenue from Hong Kong and mainland China accounting for 60% and 37% respectively. The company has a high proportion of rental income from properties, with 93% of its income derived from property investments. The tenant structure is favorable, and the company has committed to a significant investment plan of HKD 670 billion by 2025 [3][39][81]. Hang Lung Properties - Hang Lung Properties focuses on high-end properties, with a diversified portfolio across nine cities in Hong Kong and mainland China. In 2024, rental income from mainland properties accounted for 57.5%, while Hong Kong's rental income was 27.1%. The company aims to stabilize rental income through project expansions and asset optimization [3][97][98]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with a high proportion of rental income, such as Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties, as they are likely to benefit from the recovery in the commercial real estate market driven by financial activity and retail sector recovery [3][21].