商业航天深度报告：火箭回收黎明将至，商业航天千帆竞发

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the commercial aerospace industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing robust growth driven by a fourfold resonance of policy, technology, capital, and market dynamics. Key developments include clear policy frameworks, imminent technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets, increased capital inflow, and expanding market applications [2] - The industry is on the verge of entering a "Great Aerospace Era," with multiple rocket models expected to conduct reusable tests by 2025, paving the way for a low-cost era in commercial aerospace [2] - The commercial aerospace industry chain is entering a scale-up phase, with a projected increase of over 25% in rocket launches and satellite deployments in 2025 compared to 2024 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Policy, Technology, Capital, and Market Resonance - The commercial aerospace industry is supported by a series of government policies, including the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Department and significant funding initiatives [20] - Technological advancements are imminent, particularly in reusable rocket technology, with several companies racing to validate their designs [21] - Capital market activity is high, with a projected total financing of 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 32% year-on-year increase [30] 2. Rocket Industry Chain - The rocket industry is characterized by a focus on reusable technology, which is expected to significantly reduce launch costs by up to 80% [13] - The industry is moving towards a more integrated supply chain, with upstream components and materials becoming increasingly valuable [66] 3. Satellite Industry Chain - The satellite manufacturing sector is transitioning to a mass production model, with several factories established to meet growing demand [26] - The cost structure of satellite production is being optimized through standardization and mass production techniques, leading to a decrease in unit costs [26] 4. Market Demand - National and commercial demands for satellite services are surging, driven by applications in military, telecommunications, and emerging sectors like space tourism [33][40] - The competition for low-Earth orbit resources is intensifying, with China submitting applications for over 200,000 satellites to the International Telecommunication Union [36]