2025年宏观经济回顾与2026年展望：于变局中开新局，寻求新均衡的2026

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth target of around 5% despite challenges, but it also faced structural pressures. In 2026, the economy is expected to grow at 4.8%, likely showing a "low - then - high" trend. To achieve the economic growth target in 2026, comprehensive macro - policies are needed, including fiscal, monetary, and various industry - specific policies [3][7][48] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review: A Year of "Reconstruction" Amid Interwoven Multiple Variables - Growth Trend: In 2025, China's economy showed a "high - then - low" pattern. The real GDP grew 5.0% year - on - year, with nominal growth at 4.0%. Final consumption contributed over half (52%) to GDP growth, but there is room for improvement. Investment weakened, with capital formation contribution declining [9] - Economic Structure: The economy maintained a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern. Industrial production grew at about 6%. "Two - new" policies supported the economy in the first half, but domestic demand lacked momentum in the second half. Investment, especially fixed - asset investment, declined, with real estate and infrastructure investment hitting new lows [10] - Structural Reconstruction: - Macroeconomic Narrative: DeepSeek's technological breakthrough led to a re - evaluation of Chinese assets, especially technology assets, and changed the economic growth narrative [17] - Export Resilience: Exports were affected by US tariffs but remained resilient. The export support shifted from Europe and the US to emerging markets, with high - value - added capital and intermediate goods being the main export items [20] - New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion: The real estate industry continued to adjust, gradually returning to its livelihood nature. New kinetic energy, such as high - tech industries, played an increasing role in economic growth. "Anti - involution" governance promoted the transformation of emerging industries [25][26] 3.2 Four Constraints on the Economy's Path to a "New Equilibrium" - Global Political and Economic Landscape: The global political and economic landscape is evolving rapidly. Sino - US competition intensifies in non - trade areas, and geopolitical frictions with non - US countries are increasing [32] - Micro - entity Behavior: The behavior of micro - entities has not emerged from the "post - pandemic" paradigm. Residents' preventive savings are likely to be normalized, and enterprises' investment willingness is still low. Local governments face fiscal and debt constraints [32][35][36] - New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion: The transformation from old to new kinetic energy brings downward pressure, fiscal, and employment gaps. New industries are not yet able to fully replace old ones [40] - High - quality Supply: The supply of high - quality products and services is insufficient, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand and restricting the release of domestic demand [44] 3.3 2026 Outlook: Expected Economic Growth of 4.8%, with Potential Marginal Improvement in Macro - micro Temperature Difference - Overall Economic Growth: In 2026, the economy is expected to show a "low - then - high" trend. Under the neutral scenario, the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, with quarterly rates of 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, and 4.9% respectively [7][48] - Sector - specific Outlook: - Production: Industrial production is expected to remain resilient, with an expected 5.5% increase in industrial added value. The service industry is also expected to grow, with the service production index rising 5.6% [52] - Exports: Although there is a base effect, exports are supported by multiple factors. With potential "tactical" easing of Sino - US trade frictions and demand from emerging markets, the export growth rate is expected to be 4.5% [53] - Investment: Investment is likely to stop falling and stabilize. Infrastructure and emerging industries will be the main drivers, with overall investment growth expected to reach 2% and narrow - sense infrastructure investment growing by 8% [57] - Real Estate: In the short term, the real estate market is still in the inventory - clearing stage, but investment decline is expected to narrow to 10% [58] - Consumption: Consumption is expected to have a weak recovery, with total social retail sales growing by 4%. Service consumption has greater growth potential, while commodity consumption is restricted by policy and base effects [60] - Prices: The effects of "anti - involution" governance will continue to show, and PPI and CPI are expected to have a mild recovery, potentially improving the macro - micro temperature difference [62] 3.4 Policy Recommendations for Achieving the 2026 Economic Growth Target - Fiscal and Monetary Policy: In 2026, the deficit rate should be kept above 4%, and the general fiscal expenditure may reach about 15 trillion yuan. There may be one interest rate cut and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts [7][67][69] - Expanding Domestic Demand: For consumption, expand subsidies to service consumption, promote full implementation of holidays, and improve the service consumption environment. For investment, play the role of government investment and use the national venture capital guidance fund to attract private capital [70][71] - Increasing High - quality Supply: Encourage innovation in products and services, and relax market access to increase high - quality supply [74] - Cultivating New Kinetic Energy: Focus on key "choke - point" technologies, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and promote the cluster - based development of strategic emerging industries [74] - Stabilizing the Real Estate Market: Improve the "commercial housing + affordable housing" dual - track system, and promote the coordinated development of supply and demand in the real estate market [76] - Debt Management: Optimize the debt structure and efficiency, and build a long - term debt management mechanism [77] - External Response: Implement a more diversified and in - depth opening - up strategy, expand the foreign trade "circle of friends", and support enterprises to go global [79] - Reform and System - building: Promote economic, fiscal, and tax system reforms, and release institutional dividends [81]