通信行业双周报（2026、1、9-2026、1、22）：关注业绩预告密集披露期表现-20260123

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting it to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2]. Core Insights - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.61% over the past two weeks (January 9 to January 22), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [4][11]. - The report highlights that the current period is critical for verifying the performance of various sectors and companies as annual earnings forecasts are being disclosed. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key industry players' performance guidance and order progress, which will provide strong support for valuations [4][40]. - The communication industry is entering a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers expected from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors. The recovery of cellular IoT modules and ongoing construction of communication facilities like base stations and data centers are anticipated to create new demands for devices, equipment, and service operations [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a 2.48% increase in January, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.45 percentage points [11]. - The six sub-sectors of the communication industry have varied performance, with the highest increase in the communication application value-added services sector (+11.59%) and the lowest in communication terminal and accessories (-1.64%) [16][19]. 2. Industry News - IDC predicts that by 2030, the number of AI agents will reach 2.216 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 139% [17]. - China Mobile has established a special office for computing power strategy, marking a significant organizational adjustment [18][20]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that AI has penetrated over 70% of business scenarios in leading smart factories [21]. 3. Company Announcements - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit increase of 40%-60% for 2025, driven by the growth in AI and data center construction [24]. - Changxin Bochuang anticipates a net profit increase of 344%-413% for 2025, fueled by demand in data communication products [25]. - Yilian Network forecasts a slight decline in net profit for 2025, while Huace Navigation expects a growth of 14.84%-18.27% [26][27]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of November 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.20% [28]. - The length of optical cable lines reached about 74.44 million kilometers by Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.63% [31]. - The total number of 5G base stations reached 4.83 million by November 2025, with a net increase of 579,000 from the previous year [37]. 5. Communication Sector Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and earnings certainty," highlighting firms such as China Mobile, China Telecom, ZTE, and Longfly Fiber [40][41].