Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-23 08:41Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 1.24%, and the far - month contracts closed down 3 - 8% [6][42]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1954.19, down 2.1 points from last week, a 0.1% month - on - month decline [6][42]. - The cancellation of full tax refunds for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush for shipping, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. But after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and with weakened spot - end support, the futures price declined [6][42]. - China's foreign trade in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with both imports and exports improving significantly, possibly due to the cancellation of VAT export tax refunds for some goods and pre - holiday rush exports [6][42]. - China's exports are expected to maintain high growth in 2026 as its export competitiveness strengthens [6][42]. - Spot freight rates for the sixth week were between $2000 - $2600 for large containers. Some shipping companies in the PA alliance lowered their spot quotes in early February [6][42]. - There is an expectation that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may end in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption has improved [6][42]. - The market is optimistic about the economic recovery in the eurozone, and inflation is approaching the target level, supporting the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [6][42]. - The current price increase by shipping companies boosts the futures price, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April. However, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the traditional peak - season boost may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fell and then rose this week [13]. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract both decreased [15]. - Here are the specific data of futures contracts and spot index: | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Weekly Change | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | EC2602 | 0.33 | 5.70 | 1717.70 | | Futures | EC2604 | - 1.24 | - 14.30 | 1138.30 | | Futures | EC2606 | 4.71 | 63.50 | 1412.90 | | Futures | EC2608 | 1.67 | 24.50 | 1495.50 | | Futures | EC2610 | 1.62 | 17.40 | 1093.00 | | Futures | EC2612 | 1.05 | 13.90 | 1338.50 | | Spot | SCFIS | - 0.10 | - 2.10 | 1954.19 | [10] 2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The central bank governor said that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. The financial market will be kept stable, and the RMB exchange rate will be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. | Neutral | | The Greenland crisis has turned around. Trump announced an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, and the originally planned tariffs on February 1 will not be implemented. | Bearish | | The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the eurozone, and Japan. | Bullish | | Fed Governor Bowman said that the current monetary policy is moderately restrictive. If employment does not improve, the Fed should be ready to cut interest rates further. | Neutral | [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight index fluctuated slightly this week [30]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [34]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [37]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current price increase by shipping companies boosts the futures price, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April. However, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the traditional peak - season boost may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping - capacity, and cargo - volume data in a timely manner [7][43].