宏观经济周报：海外地缘风险仍在，国内再推消费政策-20260123

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]