玉米类市场周报：现货市场偏强支撑，玉米期价继续收涨-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices fluctuated and closed higher this week. The main 2603 contract closed at 2300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, restraining international corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, as of January 20, the cumulative sales volume of reserve corn by Sinograin has approached 870,000 tons. With the reduction of the auction reserve price, the transaction rate has increased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation has converged. As the Spring Festival approaches, the grain - selling mentality of grass - roots sellers has loosened. Deep - processing enterprises' relatively high purchase prices have accelerated the sales progress of damp grain. These enterprises' overall inventory is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is still some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, which strongly supports the price. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the snow and rain weather has decreased, and with the improvement of the weather, logistics and transportation have gradually recovered. Traders are also eager to sell for cash, and the overall trading activity has increased, with purchase prices fluctuating slightly. The futures market is supported by the strong spot market and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - Dalian corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed higher. The main 2603 contract closed at 2575 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is good, and inventory has decreased overall. As of January 21, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.069 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 2.82% and a monthly decrease of 2.99%, while the year - on - year increase was 10.43%. However, the overall inventory level is still relatively high. In the short term, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Corn: The main 2603 contract closed at 2300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn supply - demand situation restrains international prices. In domestic Northeast, sales volume of reserve corn has increased, and the bullish expectation has converged. Grass - roots sellers' mentality has loosened. Deep - processing enterprises' inventory is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is restocking demand. In North China and Huanghuai, trading activity has increased due to improved weather, and prices have fluctuated slightly. The futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - Corn Starch: The main 2603 contract closed at 2575 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. Downstream demand is good, and inventory has decreased. As of January 21, the total inventory was 1.069 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 2.82% and a monthly decrease of 2.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.43%. The inventory is still at a relatively high level, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: This week, the corn futures March contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,129,331 lots, an increase of 61,589 lots from last week. The corn starch futures March contract also fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 213,792 lots, an increase of 16,791 lots from last week [16]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The net position of the top 20 in corn futures this week was - 145,929, and last week it was - 152,892, with little change in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures this week was - 42,530, and last week it was - 41,910, with little change in net short positions [23]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 52,347 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,611 lots [29]. - Spot Prices and Basis: As of January 22, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2370 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn and the average spot price was + 70 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2800 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the March contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 125 yuan/ton [34][38]. - Futures Inter - Month Spread Changes: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was + 13 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [44]. - Futures Spread Changes: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 275 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 444 yuan/ton, the same as last week [54]. - Substitute Spread Changes: As of January 22, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2526.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2370 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 156.44 yuan/ton. In the 4th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 577 yuan/ton, narrowing by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, an increase of 165,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in that week was 389,000 tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons week - on - week [48]. - Domestic Corn Selling Progress: As of January 22, the overall selling progress of domestic corn was 56%, an increase of 3 percentage points from January 15, and a decrease of 1 percentage point compared with the same period last year [60]. - Monthly Import Arrival Volume: In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and an increase of 245,200 tons compared with the previous month [64]. - Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days: As of January 22, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.32 days, an increase of 0.17 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79% [68]. - Demand Side - Pig and Sows Inventory: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the inventory of sows was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads, a decrease of 2.9% [72]. - Breeding Profit: As of January 16, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.39 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 48.35 yuan/head [76]. - Starch and Alcohol Enterprises' Profit: As of January 22, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 52 yuan/ton. As of January 23, 2026, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 689 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 916 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 424 yuan/ton [81]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of January 21, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.838 million tons, an increase of 6.91% [85]. - Starch Enterprises' Startup Rate and Inventory: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 330,800 tons, an increase of 15,400 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 60.46%, an increase of 2.81% from last week. As of January 21, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.069 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 2.82%, a monthly decrease of 2.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.43% [89]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of January 23, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 10.26%, a decrease of 1.52% from 11.78% last week. This week, the implied volatility decreased slightly and was at a medium level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [92].