深挖宏观数据系列之十：再通胀？论PPI和CPI的传导关系

Price Trends Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound, but this does not equate to comprehensive re-inflation, as its influence on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is conditional and phase-dependent[1] - The divergence between CPI and PPI is attributed to increased labor costs, supply-demand imbalances, and changes in policy environments[1] - In 2012, CPI was at 24% while PPI was significantly lower, indicating a historical trend of divergence[4] Causal Relationships - A significant unidirectional positive causality exists from PPI to CPI, while the reverse is not statistically significant[1] - The price transmission mechanism shows variability over time; during demand expansion and policy alignment, PPI positively influences CPI, but this effect weakens during economic adjustments[1] Future Price Outlook - Short to medium-term price increases are primarily driven by rising international commodity prices, leading to cost-push and substitution effects[1] - A 10% increase in crude oil extraction prices is projected to raise PPI by approximately 0.35 percentage points and CPI by about 0.15 percentage points[1] - A similar 10% increase in non-ferrous metal extraction prices is expected to increase PPI and CPI by approximately 0.18 and 0.05 percentage points, respectively[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include economic structural adjustments and macroeconomic regulatory factors that may impact the transmission of PPI to CPI[1]