农林牧渔行业月报:猪价偏弱震荡,2025年宠物食品出口表现向好-20260123
Zhongyuan Securities·2026-01-23 09:14

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak fluctuation in pig prices, with the average price in December 2025 at 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.09% month-on-month and down 26.76% year-on-year. However, a supply gap for heavy pigs is expected to lead to a price rebound [9][19]. - The white feather chicken prices showed an upward trend in December, with an average price of 3.67 yuan/jin, up 5.16% month-on-month, supported by tight supply and demand [9][25]. - Pet food exports maintained a year-on-year growth, with December 2025 exports at 37,700 tons, up 15.49% year-on-year, although the export value in USD decreased by 1.68% [9][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 0.24%, ranking 22nd among 30 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 2.28%, indicating a 2.04 percentage point underperformance [9][12]. Livestock Industry Data Tracking - Pig Farming: The average price of pigs in December was 11.58 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.76%. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to stabilize, with a potential increase in prices due to supply gaps [19][24]. - White Feather Chicken: The average price for white feather chicken in December was 3.67 yuan/jin, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.16% due to tight supply and demand support [25][29]. Pet Food - Pet food exports in December reached 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%, while the total export value for the year was 1.412 billion USD, down 4.62% year-on-year [32][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, and Guobao Pet, all rated as "Buy" based on their earnings forecasts and relative valuation [1][9].