单边驱动不足，煤焦震荡整理：煤焦日报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For coke, as of the week ending January 23, the combined daily average coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. The total inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 113,100 tons week - on - week to 6.6164 million tons, and the available days of coke were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days. Overall, there are no obvious positive factors in coke's fundamentals, and the support from coking coal on the cost side is also limited. The main contract will temporarily remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - For coking coal, the production is stable, imports remain at a high level, and demand is still sluggish, with no improvement in fundamentals. As of the week ending January 23, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 770,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons and 36,000 tons higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 20, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. As of the week ending January 23, the combined daily average coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons [5][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January will be about 1.8 million units, and new - energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. In 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience and vitality. The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than in 2024. The new - for - old policy was effective, with the sales of relevant goods exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Among them, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced. In 2026, a new round of new - for - old subsidies has been launched, which is expected to support the automobile market throughout the year. This month, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars are expected to be about 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year flat to slightly increase. New - energy vehicle retail sales can reach about 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [7]. - On January 23, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,420 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1,170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [8]. Spot Market - The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.29%, an annual decrease of 13.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.55%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1,450 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2.03%, no monthly change, an annual decrease of 10.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.84% [9]. - The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,240 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.06%, a monthly increase of 9.73%, an annual increase of 5.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,560 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.89%, a monthly increase of 3.31%, an annual increase of 4.70%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,780 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.71%, a monthly increase of 4.71%, an annual increase of 16.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.46% [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract is 1,722 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.59%, a maximum price of 1,749 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,682 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 21,987 lots (an increase of 9,497 lots), and an open interest of 37,878 lots (a decrease of 238 lots) [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract is 1,157 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.84%, a maximum price of 1,170.5 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,124 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,077,875 lots (an increase of 341,687 lots), and an open interest of 500,996 lots (a decrease of 20,065 lots) [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills), domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw purchases, coal - washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [13][24][30]. Market Outlook - The situation of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, with coke having limited fundamentals and cost - side support, and coking coal having stable production, high imports, and sluggish demand [31].