合成橡胶市场周报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the export transactions of some domestic butadiene resources drove up the raw material market, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber and affecting production profits. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, and traders actively supported prices. However, downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded rapidly after a significant decline [6]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained at a high level. Sufficient spot resources have led to continuous price - pressure from downstream buyers, putting pressure on production profits. Some producers' inventories increased this week, while the price advantage of arbitrage resources led to increased low - price procurement by downstream, and traders' inventories decreased. It is expected that the inventories of producers and traders will change little in the short term [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most other enterprises maintained stable production. The shipment pressure of all - steel tire enterprises increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - For the br2603 contract, short - term traders need to beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: The export transactions of domestic butadiene resources drove up raw material prices, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, but downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded after a decline [6]. - Market Outlook: Supply of butadiene rubber remains high, and downstream procurement is still pressuring prices. Producer inventories increased, and trader inventories decreased. It is expected that inventories will change little in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises showed mixed trends, and it is expected to be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: For the br2603 contract, short - term traders should beware of callback correction and wait and see for the time being [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 9.44% [10]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - Period Spread: As of January 23, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of January 23, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 8,120 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of January 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of January 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of January 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.45%, an increase of 0.08% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from last week [32]. Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization: In December 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.45% from last week [35]. - Production Profit: As of January 22, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - Inventory: As of January 23, the social inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 460 tons from last week. The producer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,350 tons, a decrease of 1,690 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week [45]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. The exports of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires showed different trends [48] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report