震荡偏强：热卷日报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for hot - rolled coils is "Oscillating with an upward bias", maintaining a bullish view [6] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. Although the inventory is still high year - on - year, the overall inventory risk has marginally improved. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, the price has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - 期货价格: On Friday, the持仓 volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 33,977 lots, and the trading volume was 304,877 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan, with an oscillating upward trend. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.52%. It has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and if it holds, the probability of short - and medium - term strengthening is relatively high [1] - 现货价格: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - 基差: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - Demand: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although the demand has slightly declined month - on - month, it has maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has marginally eased. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - Policy: The new regulations on steel export license management will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]