弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current soda ash market is in a weak equilibrium pattern of "high supply, low demand, neutral inventory, and strong cost." The reduction of heavy soda ash inventory brings short - term sentiment repair, and the resilience of light soda ash demand provides bottom support. However, there is no obvious increase in the terminal glass industry, lacking trend - driving forces. The futures price forms technical support in the range of 1,150 - 1,180 yuan/ton, and may continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but still faces over - capacity pressure in the medium term [3]. - As of January 22, the number of registered soda ash futures warehouse receipts dropped sharply to 70, a significant decrease from 2,432 on January 19, and the effective forecast rose to 2,747, indicating an enhanced market delivery intention. Some short - sellers shifted positions or prepared for delivery, and the short - term liquidity pressure eased. The main contract SA2605 closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23, and technically approached the key support area of 1,150 - 1,160 yuan/ton. The basis performance: the spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is about 1,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,185 yuan/ton, the basis narrowed to about 65 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot discount was repaired, reflecting the market's expectation of stable spot prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamentals of the soda ash market remained under pressure, featuring high - level supply, slight inventory reduction, structural differentiation in demand, enhanced cost support but price pressure. The futures price formed technical support in the range of 1,150 - 1,180 yuan/ton, and the short - term downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash [3]. Supply - The operating rate remained at a high level, and production increased steadily. This week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry remained above 86%. As of January 22, the national comprehensive operating rate of soda ash was 86.42%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 87.69% and that of the combined - soda process was 77.99%, basically the same as the previous week, indicating stable capacity utilization and an undiminished pace of new capacity release, with continuous pressure on the supply side [3]. Demand - Heavy soda ash was under pressure, while light soda ash still showed resilience. During the week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 150,700 tons and that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons. Next week, a 900 - ton production line of float glass is planned to resume production and ignite. Affected by the stable daily melting volume of float glass and the lack of obvious recovery in the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash remained weak. However, recently, some enterprises carried out phased replenishment due to pre - holiday stocking and cold - repair expectations, driving a significant decline in heavy soda ash inventory. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing continuous support for light soda ash [3]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of soda ash continued the downward trend, but the pace slowed down. As of January 22, the total inventory of national soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from 1.5442 million tons on January 19, showing a second consecutive week - on - week decline. The inventory of heavy soda ash decreased from 721,600 tons to 696,700 tons, a decrease of 24,900 tons during the week, reflecting the phased replenishment of the downstream glass industry [3]. Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a deep - loss state. The price of steam coal fluctuated upward, and combined with the stable cost of rock salt, the production cost support was enhanced. However, the long - term losses in the industry inhibited the willingness to actively reduce production, and the cost line became an important support for the price decline. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was still negative, and the profit of the combined - soda process was also at a low level, with the industry as a whole deeply in the red [3].