Dongguan Securities·2026-01-23 09:58Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to grow by over 80% year-on-year in 2025, with significant contributions from both the automotive and energy storage sectors [40]. - The lithium battery index has experienced a decline of 5.75% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.46 percentage points [12]. - The report highlights a robust demand for energy storage, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics, while the demand for power batteries may weaken in the short term due to seasonal factors [43]. Market Review - As of January 22, 2026, the lithium battery index has dropped 4.84% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 6.87 percentage points [12]. - The report notes that the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have increased by 19.84% and 17.19% respectively over the past two weeks, indicating a rising trend in raw material costs [24][5]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 166,100 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) was priced at 160,200 CNY/ton as of January 22, 2026 [24][5]. - Prices for various cathode materials, including lithium iron phosphate and NCM materials, have also seen significant increases, with lithium iron phosphate for power applications rising by 16.60% [27][22]. Industry News - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 144.7 GW, marking an 85% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report anticipates that global lithium battery production will reach 3,092 GWh in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [40]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Penghui Energy and Defu Technology have reported significant expected increases in net profits for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [42]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like CATL and EVE Energy, which are expected to benefit from strong demand in both the automotive and energy storage sectors [44].