Dongguan Securities·2026-01-23 09:59Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][44]. Core Insights - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.61% over the past two weeks (January 9 to January 22), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 first-level industries [4][11]. - In January, the communication sector has risen by 2.48%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index by 0.45 percentage points [4][11]. - The report highlights a critical period of annual performance forecasts for listed companies, which serves as a key window to validate the growth potential and market conditions of various sectors [4][39]. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector's six sub-sectors have varied performance over the past two weeks, with the highest increase in the SW Communication Application Value-Added Services (+11.59%) and the lowest in SW Communication Terminals and Accessories (-1.64%) [4][15]. - The report notes that the communication industry is entering a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers expected from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy [4][39]. Industry News and Company Announcements - IDC predicts that by 2030, AI agents will become a significant part of the global workforce, with a projected increase from approximately 28.6 million active agents in 2025 to 2.216 billion [16]. - China Mobile has established a special office for computing power strategy, marking a new phase in its systematic approach to computing power deployment [17][19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that AI has penetrated over 70% of business scenarios in leading smart factories [20]. - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit increase of 40%-60% for 2025, driven by the growth in AI and data center construction [23]. - Changxin Bochuang anticipates a net profit increase of 344%-413% for 2025, fueled by demand in cloud computing and AI [24]. Industry Data Updates - As of November 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.20% [27]. - The internet broadband access user base was about 697 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.28% [29]. - The length of optical cable lines reached approximately 74.44 million kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.63% [30]. - By November 2025, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.83 million, with a net increase of 579,000 from the previous year [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and earnings certainty," highlighting potential opportunities in the sector [4][39]. - Recommended stocks include China Mobile (600941.SH), China Telecom (601728.SH), ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ), Changfei Optical Fiber (601869.SH), and Weisheng Information (688100.SH) [40][42].