有色日报：有色震荡走强-20260123

Report Overview - Report Type: Futures Research Report [2] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Copper: This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly around the 100,000 level, with a significantly narrower amplitude than last week. It repeatedly fell below the 100,000 mark during the week and then stabilized and rebounded, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, market risk appetite rebounded with the reversal of the Greenland event, and the US dollar index was weakly running. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped to the 100,000 mark, the restocking willingness of some downstream industries increased. On Thursday, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased slightly, the monthly spread rebounded slightly, and the import loss also narrowed, reflecting the increasing domestic industrial support. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 100,000 mark [6]. - Aluminum: This week, the aluminum price fluctuated around the 24,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. At the macro level, the Greenland issue reversed, and US President Trump postponed tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite. At the industrial level, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the downstream remained in a wait-and-see mood. Continuously monitor the long-short game at the 24,000 mark [7]. - Nickel: This week, the nickel price fluctuated above the 140,000 level, repeatedly falling below the 140,000 mark during the session and then bottoming out and rebounding. At the macro level, the market atmosphere warmed up during the week, and the non-ferrous metal sector stabilized as a whole. Recently, after the nickel price digested the supply disturbance in Indonesia, the intraday amplitude narrowed, the short-term strong industrial expectation drive declined, and the weak reality pattern remained unchanged. Technically, continuously monitor the support at the 140,000 mark [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - Lundin Mining Corporation achieved its production targets for various metals on a consolidated basis for the third consecutive year in 2025. In 2025, its copper production was 331,232 tons, gold production was 141,859 ounces, and nickel production at the Eagle mine was 9,907 tons. In Q4 2025, the company's copper production exceeded 87,000 tons and gold production exceeded 34,000 ounces. The Caserones mine achieved its highest quarterly copper production since acquisition in Q4, reaching 39,612 tons, mainly due to increased ore grade and cathode copper production. Looking ahead, Lundin expects its consolidated copper production to be 310,000 - 335,000 tons in 2026, 315,000 - 340,000 tons in 2027, and 290,000 - 315,000 tons in 2028. The cash cost guidance for 2026 is $1.90 - $2.10 per pound. The expected maintenance capital expenditure in 2026 is $550 million, expansion capital expenditure is about $445 million, and exploration expenditure is expected to be $53 million, mainly for in-mine and near-mine exploration [10]. - The operating rate of domestic scrap anode copper enterprises declined. This week, the operating rate of SMM scrap anode plate enterprises was 72.17%, a 3.73 percentage point decrease from the previous week. It is expected to decline by 0.83 percentage points to 71.34% next week [11]. - On January 22, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,200 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the 19th [12]. Aluminum - On January 22, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 138,856 tons, an increase of 101 tons from the previous trading day. In the past week, the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts increased by 773 tons, a growth rate of 0.56%. In the past month, they increased by 62,767 tons, a growth rate of 82.49% [13]. - On January 22, Mysteeel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 19th [13]. Related Charts Copper - Copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, monthly spread of Shanghai copper, SHFE inventory, and inventory warehouse receipts are presented in the report [14][16][17] Aluminum - Aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai-London ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum bar inventory are presented in the report [25][27][29] Nickel - Nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory are presented in the report [37][39][41]