原油周度报告-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, the crude oil market lacks continuous driving factors. Geopolitical uncertainty makes the market direction unclear, and the market shows a wide - range shock. Trump's hint of non - military intervention in Iran cools down geopolitical risks and causes the market to decline. However, the US military build - up in the Middle East still poses a risk of rising geopolitical tensions, and market concerns support prices. In the short term, geopolitics will dominate oil price trends. OPEC+ suspends the Q1 production increase plan, and global crude oil production decreases month - on - month, tightening the supply side and supporting the market. But the long - term supply surplus pattern remains, suppressing the oil price rebound. Although the geopolitical tension has temporarily eased, the risk remains, and the market's short - term focus will be on geopolitical developments. Due to high uncertainty, market volatility may increase, and it is recommended to pay continuous attention to geopolitical trends. The trading strategy is to wait and see first [8][46] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - IEA raises the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. India's Reliance Industries will resume receiving Russian oil in February and March after a one - month suspension. Kazakhstan's Kashagan oilfield diverts crude oil to the domestic market for the first time due to CPC pipeline bottlenecks [7] - Key data: US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16th is 3.602 million barrels (expected 1.131 million barrels, previous 3.391 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma is 1.478 million barrels (previous 0.745 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory is 0.806 million barrels (previous 0.214 million barrels) [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Geopolitical disturbances, Kazakhstan - related factors [10] - Bearish factors: Venezuela's hand - over of crude oil to the US, supply surplus expectations [10] Macro Analysis - Geopolitical risks have temporarily declined but not disappeared. The Middle East situation is tense again as the US is sending more troops to the Middle East. Trump says he won't impose tariffs on Europe. Venezuela has handed over 50 million barrels of crude oil to the US [11] - IEA raises global supply and demand growth forecasts. It raises the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, the oil demand growth forecast to 0.93 million barrels per day, and the non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day. It expects a supply surplus in Q1 2026. Russia's crude oil production increased from 9 million barrels per day in November to 9.56 million barrels per day in December [12] Supply - demand Analysis Supply - US crude oil production decreased by 0.021 million barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16th. With downstream demand entering the off - season, production may decline further [13] - US oil drilling rig count increased slightly to 410 (previous 409). It is expected to remain at a low level due to capital expenditure cuts and low - oil - price impacts [16] Demand - US refinery utilization rate was 93.3% for the week ending January 16th, down week - on - week. US refineries are entering the maintenance season, and the utilization rate will face downward pressure in Q1 [18] - In December, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 85.78%, up 2.02 percentage points month - on - month. It will face seasonal downward pressure [21] - As of January 22nd, China's major refinery utilization rate was 78.78%, up 1.54 percentage points, and is expected to rise. The local refinery utilization rate was 60.75%, down 0.26 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.23 percentage points year - on - year. Major refineries will see a seasonal rise, while local refineries will decline seasonally before the Spring Festival [26] Profit - As of January 23rd, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 761.48 yuan/ton, down 0.86 yuan/ton. The comprehensive refining profit of local refineries was 254.37 yuan/ton, down 24.89 yuan/ton [31] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16th was 3.602 million barrels, higher than expected. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0.806 million barrels. Due to refinery maintenance, inventory may increase [36] - US Cushing crude oil inventory was 1.478 million barrels for the week ending January 16th, up from the previous week. EIA gasoline inventory was 256.99 million barrels, up 5.977 million barrels [41] Crack Spread - As of January 21st, the crack spread of Louisiana Light Sweet crude oil in the US Gulf was $25.37/barrel, up week - on - week, supported by lower refinery utilization rates and downstream demand recovery [42] Market Outlook and Judgment - Similar to the core view, the market lacks continuous drivers, and geopolitics will dominate short - term oil prices. Supply is tightening in the short - term but the long - term surplus remains. Geopolitical risks remain, and market volatility may increase [46]