国内财政支出加力，美欧摩擦不断

Domestic Economic Outlook - The IMF has raised China's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2% and 0.3% to 5% and 4.5% respectively, citing improved external trade conditions and robust growth in emerging industries like AI[8] - The Chinese government has committed to increasing fiscal spending in 2026, with a focus on policies to boost domestic demand through lower credit costs and support for private investment[10] - In 2025, China's industrial output increased by 5.9%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.4%, indicating a stable industrial economy[12] International Economic Developments - Japan's 40-year bond yield has surpassed 4% for the first time, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability following the announcement of expansionary fiscal policies[16] - The U.S. housing market faced a significant downturn, with December's existing home sales index dropping 9.3%, marking the largest decline since the pandemic began[20] - Tensions between the U.S. and Europe escalated over tariffs related to Greenland, impacting market stability and leading to a surge in gold and silver prices[18] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.15% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices decreased by 3.67% and 2.17% respectively[24] - In emerging industries, prices for lithium iron phosphate rose by 11.52%, while prices for hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased by 3.97%[24]