金信期货观点-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices. The rebound space of oil prices is limited without clear production - cut signals or significant geopolitical escalation [4]. - PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually, and PTA prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain before the Spring Festival [4]. - The supply pressure of MEG has been alleviated, but it is in a short - term supply - demand weak pattern. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and the supply surplus situation is difficult to change in the medium term [5]. - The supply - demand of BZ has marginally improved, and EB prices have strengthened. Although the current pressure of BZ is still large, there is a risk of correction, and the overall view is cautiously bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The crude oil market is influenced by inventory pressure, supply return, and the decline of geopolitical risk premium. Cold weather may support demand in the short term, but the demand improvement is difficult to change the overall supply - demand pattern. The supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices, and the rebound space is limited without clear signals [4]. PX & PTA - Domestic PX maintenance plans are being implemented, and the load has dropped from a high level. The processing fee has rebounded to around $350/ton. The supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. PTA device load has slightly decreased, and there is a weakening demand signal at the terminal. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term [4]. - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 2.08% from last week. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.31%, down 0.53% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $350/ton. The new PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and the maintenance plan in the second quarter is relatively large. The near - term industrial situation has weakened [8]. - The PTA spot market price is 5,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 75.83%, down 1.39% from last week. The factory inventory days are 3.62 days, the same as last week. The polyester production reduction plan has increased, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost [13]. MEG - The spring maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol syngas devices, combined with the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors, has alleviated the supply pressure. The port inventory has increased again, but the import volume is expected to decline in January - February. The short - term supply - demand is weak, with strong support at around 3,600 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - The price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,652 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.06%, down 1.63% from last week. The port inventory in East China is 740,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level under the future supply - demand weak expectation [20]. BZ & EB - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the port inventory has started to decline from a high level. The downstream demand has been boosted. The supply of styrene is expected to shrink, and the price has strengthened. The downstream 3S shows resilience, and the inventory pressure has been gradually relieved. The current pressure of pure benzene is still large, and there is a risk of correction, with a cautiously bullish view [5]. - The pure benzene operating rate is 72.37%, down 1.89% from last week. The styrene operating rate is 69.63%, down 1.23% from last week. The BZN has rebounded to around $160/ton. The pure benzene and styrene have both reduced inventory. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS have different operating rate changes, and the 3S production and sales have improved [29]. Polyester and Downstream - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 83.49%, down 3.21% from last week. The inventory of polyester staple fiber and filament has decreased. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 51.20%, down 3.74% from the previous period. The terminal demand has weakened, and the market atmosphere has become colder [24].