第一创业晨会纪要-20260123

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) announced a voluntary disclosure of its 2025 operating performance and 2026 performance forecast, estimating 2025 revenue between RMB 668 million and RMB 688 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.91% to 22.47%. For 2026, the expected revenue is between RMB 8.2 billion and RMB 8.8 billion, indicating a further acceleration in growth to 22.7% to 28% year-on-year, reflecting the trend of domestic semiconductor expansion driven by AI demand [2] - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002.SH) projected a revenue exceeding RMB 6 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.1 billion, up about 93%. The fourth quarter alone is expected to exceed RMB 2 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of over 60% [3] Group 2: Military Industry - Zhongbing Hongjian (000519.SZ) reported a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 34 million to RMB 46 million for 2025, recovering from a loss of approximately RMB 330 million the previous year. The fourth quarter is expected to show a net profit of about RMB 100 million, indicating a significant recovery in domestic military orders [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The restart time for the Tiaowei Mine under CATL remains uncertain, keeping lithium prices at high levels. The production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lithium mica mines has decreased to RMB 60,000 per ton. Short-term supply constraints are expected to support high lithium prices, while new supply may emerge in the second half of 2026 [6] Group 4: Solar Industry - Major Chinese photovoltaic companies are projected to remain in a loss-making state for 2025, with Tongwei Co. expecting a net profit of -RMB 9 billion to -RMB 10 billion, and JinkoSolar forecasting a net profit of -RMB 5.9 billion to -RMB 6.9 billion. The significant losses are attributed to supply-demand mismatches and rising costs, indicating the industry is likely in a "clearing-bottom" phase [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - Chow Tai Fook reported a retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year for FY26Q3, with mainland China growing by 16.9%. The core driver of performance is the optimization of product structure, with "priced jewelry" retail value increasing by 59.6%, now accounting for 40.1% of sales. The company is actively optimizing its store network, with a net reduction of over 200 stores [9]