钢矿预期宽幅震荡

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Expected to Fluctuate Widely" [2] - Date of Report: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a volatile trend. Short - term long positions are recommended, but the upside space is expected to be limited. Long - term holding is not advised, and stop - losses should be set. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3050, and the resistance level is 3200. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 770, and the resistance level is 830 [4]. Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Supply - This week, the total supply of the five major steel products was 819.59 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The output structure of steel products has differentiated, with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. Rebar production increased by 9.25 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of some production lines in central China. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly by 2.55 tons due to a steel mill's maintenance in North China and slow output recovery in East China [11][20]. Demand - From the perspective of winter storage demand, downstream winter storage willingness is average, mostly with a cautious attitude, and the winter storage volume may decrease compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price. In terms of rigid demand, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has limited room for further improvement. As the pre - holiday demand seasonally weakens, the inventory pressure on steel products may further accumulate. Currently, there is no obvious driver for the finished product prices, and they fluctuate following the raw material prices [4]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.07 tons, an increase of 0.8%. Building materials showed inventory accumulation of 14.87 tons, while plates showed inventory reduction of 4.8 tons. Rebar inventory in steel mills increased by 6.32 tons, with significant increases in central and northern China. In terms of social inventory, rebar inventory increased in East, South, and North China, with the most obvious increase in North China. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in the north and increased in the other two major regions, with the most obvious inventory reduction in central China [11][20]. Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply - This week, iron ore prices first fell and then rebounded, with the main contract falling below 800. The global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume also declined. Domestic mine output increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports continued to accumulate. From January 12th to 18th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2659.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1442.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 tons. The total global iron ore shipments were 2929.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 16555.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 279.84 tons [4][24]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output this week was 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Group 6: Winter Storage Analysis Time and Cycle - Winter storage usually starts from late November to mid - December (about 8 weeks before the Spring Festival) and ends in early March of the following year (about 4 weeks after the Spring Festival), with a cycle of about 12 weeks [14]. Policy Price and Basis - The current winter storage policy price is 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 30~+30 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel's research, the winter storage willingness of traders is only 42%. Steel mills have few policies, mainly post - settlement/price - setting [17].